Government tells Parliament El Niño likely to persist until February 2027

Asked and answered by: Asked by Dr. T Sumathy Alias Thamizhachi Thangapandian; Answered by the Minister of State (Independent Charge) for Ministry of Science and Technology and Earth Sciences (Dr. Jitendra Singh).

What the government said

• INCOIS developed an indigenous AI/ML-based El Niño prediction system.
• El Niño conditions developed in May 2026 and are likely to persist from June 2026 to February 2027 with 70–90% probability.
• El Niño may increase the likelihood of marine heatwaves and thermal stress on coral reefs.
• INCOIS has upgraded high-resolution forecasting models for storm surges and high waves.
• Budgetary allocation for the Deep Ocean Mission for mapping marine resources in the current financial year is Rs 145.06 Cr.
• Biodiversity surveys of 32 seamounts in the Indian EEZ have been completed, with 10 more planned.
• Four active hydrothermal vents and two sulphide mineral sites were identified in the Central Indian Ocean region.
• INCOIS provides Ocean State Forecasts for the Tamil Nadu coast at 3-hour intervals for up to 10 days.
• Six tide gauge stations and Coastal Wave Rider Buoys have been established along the Tamil Nadu coast.
• INCOIS collaborates with the Government of Tamil Nadu on the UNESCO-IOC Tsunami Ready Recognition Programme.

Also in the document

• The answer states that El Niño is likely to persist until February 2027.
• The answer specifies a budgetary allocation of Rs 145.06 Cr for the Deep Ocean Mission for the current financial year.