El Niño likely to persist until February 2027

The question asked the Ministry of Earth Sciences to provide details on INCOIS's El Niño projections, upgrades to early warning systems, Deep Ocean Mission budget allocations, and specific coastal resilience measures for Tamil Nadu.

Asked by Dr. T Sumathy Alias Thamizhachi Thangapandian; Answered by the Minister of State (Independent Charge) for Ministry of Science and Technology and Earth Sciences (Dr. Jitendra Singh).

• INCOIS developed an indigenous AI/ML-based El Niño prediction system.
• El Niño conditions developed in May 2026 and are likely to persist from June 2026 to February 2027 with 70–90% probability.
• El Niño may increase the likelihood of marine heatwaves and thermal stress on coral reefs.
• INCOIS has upgraded high-resolution forecasting models for storm surges and high waves.
• Budgetary allocation for the Deep Ocean Mission for mapping marine resources in the current financial year is Rs 145.06 Cr.
• Biodiversity surveys of 32 seamounts in the Indian EEZ have been completed, with 10 more planned.
• Four active hydrothermal vents and two sulphide mineral sites were identified in the Central Indian Ocean region.
• INCOIS provides Ocean State Forecasts for the Tamil Nadu coast at 3-hour intervals for up to 10 days.
• Six tide gauge stations and Coastal Wave Rider Buoys have been established along the Tamil Nadu coast.
• INCOIS collaborates with the Government of Tamil Nadu on the UNESCO-IOC Tsunami Ready Recognition Programme.

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