Indian rupee underperforms in 2025 despite strong macroeconomic fundamentals

This is the Economic Survey 2025-26 issued by the Ministry of Finance, Department of Economic Affairs, Government of India, which assesses the state of the Indian economy, fiscal developments, and global outlook. It matters to citizens as it provides the official government analysis of macroeconomic performance, policy reforms, and future economic scenarios for the year.

The Government of India (Ministry of Finance), the general public, investors, and policymakers concerned with India's macroeconomic stability, fiscal consolidation, and global trade dynamics.

• The document reports that India achieved a fiscal deficit of 4.8% of GDP in 2025, against a budgeted 4.9%, and set a target of 4.4% for FY26.
• It notes that India received credit rating upgrades from Morningstar DBRS, S&P, and R&I in 2025, with S&P upgrading India from BBB- to BBB.
• The survey states that India anticipates a full-year real growth rate of over 7% for 2025 and another year of real growth at or near 7%.
• It mentions the implementation of significant tax breaks for households in the FY26 budget, the notification of four labour codes, and the opening of the nuclear power generation and insurance sectors to private/foreign investment.
• The document outlines three global scenarios for 2026, assigning a subjective probability of 40% to 45% to a 'managed disorder' scenario where minor shocks escalate into volatility.

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